Gresham’s 2008 Annual Outlook

The second half of 2007 provided a stark example of the reasons we have felt that the risk/reward equation for investment markets was uninspiring. In particular, it confirmed and perhaps exceeded our expectations that credit markets would likely constitute Ground Zero in any financial upheaval. We can now say with much greater confidence that the problems in credit markets have spilled over into the general economy. However, we are fortunate that the credit crisis began at a time when global economic and business trends were relatively good, providing some cushion to the expected economic downturn. While the debate over whether the U.S. economy is headed for, or already in, a recession has become more of a technical exercise for economists, there is no debate that corporate profits, particularly those in the financial and consumer discretionary sectors, are slowing and general business conditions are weakening.